Seiad Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

002
FXUS66 KMFR 200510
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1010 PM PDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.UPDATE...Aviation discussion updated.


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.DISCUSSION...Unusually warm temperatures mixed with some fire
weather concerns are the main headlines in the forecast for
today. The fire weather conditions are discussed in the Fire
Weather section below. We set 6 temperature records yesterday with
North Bend the only site missing out due to some onshore flow and
coastal stratus.

The Extreme Forecast Index(EFI) continues to show widespread
values of 1 today. This suggests the ECMWF ensemble members are
all exceeding the model climatology in widespread areas. The 500
mb heights around 586dm are also in the extremes of climatology
for this time of year in northern California. This will continue
to result in daytime temperatures pushing 15 to 25 degrees above
normal for mid March with multiple records potentially falling
yet again today.

Alturas` record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall.
Mount Shasta City`s record of 74 will fall to a high around 82.
Montague`s record of 77 will probably fall to a high around 79.
Medford`s record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall.
Klamath Falls` record of 72 will fall to a high around 76.
Roseburg`s record of 81 will likely stand today as we`re only
forecasting a high of 76 up there. There will be some weak lift
farther to the north in Central Oregon, so some high clouds
could keep things a little cooler up there. There is also some
stronger onshore flow there as well.

By Friday, the ridge begins to break down as 500 mb heights start
to lower over Oregon and northern California. Even with the
breakdown, we`re still expecting some more temperature records to
fall across the region. Eventually, a short wave and cold front
will push into the forecast area around Saturday morning with a
slight chance of rain. No wind, hydro, or winter impacts are
anticipated with this frontal passage. Temperatures will trend
cooler as relatively cooler air moves in behind the front.
Surprisingly enough, given the record-brekaing warmth of the last
several days, we may see frost return to the West Side valleys,
and a few areas could see freezing conditions, Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Essentially, all the blooms we have seen recently
are at risk of cold temperatures this weekend.

Monday will be a be a break between the systems before models
want to spin up another low in the Pacific. The GFS low center
still seems to be too far east compared to the ensemble range. In
any case, the probability of precipitation forecast is around 60
to 80 percent Tuesday into Wednesday with snow levels dropping
down to 4000 feet or lower behind the front. Don`t count on a lot
of snow with this system as only a few inches are anticipated in
the Cascades. However, we will see another round of cold
temperatures, with frost and freeze even more likely Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

-Smith/BPN



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.AVIATION...20/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail for inland areas
through the Friday afternoon. A mix of IFR to MVFR conditions are
forecast to return to the coast late tonight into  Friday morning,
including at North Bend. This will be widespread from Cape Blanco
northward along the coast and into the Coquille Valley with areas of
MVFR/IFR affecting the coast south of Cape Blanco. These conditions
will linger along the coast Friday afternoon and evening. Areas of
MVFR ceilings will spread into the Umpqua Basin Friday evening and
Friday night.


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.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, March 19, 2026...Conditions
will remain below advisory levels through Friday evening. A thermal
trough develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds with
gales possible into Sunday, and steep to very steep seas possible
into Monday. A Hazardous Seas Watch has been issued for Saturday
morning through early Monday for areas south of Port Orford. The
outlook is for conditions to briefly improve Monday afternoon and
evening. Advisory strength winds are likely around the Tuesday and
Wednesday timeframe as another cold front swings through the waters.
Gales are also possible if the front is strong enough. -Hermansen


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday morning
     through late Sunday night for PZZ376.

&&

$$